Sorry Jerome: I see the 'Stag' and the 'Flation'

An Update on Inflation and Market Path

• Last week I discussed US growth hitting a slowdown in US Soft Patch — Sell in May? Not a full-blown recession call — I am not prepared to fight 5%+ nominal growth driven by out-of-control fiscal.

• Today I will revisit inflation. Even if we assume the US government won’t gun the economy with stimulus (fat chance I know, see end of the Soft Patch), Second Inflation Wave likely won’t peak before mid summer, contrary to many expectations.

• First to the charts. Then I address implications to FX, rates, and equities, a dive into shifting quant factors and Momentum, and finally where the trade expression is converging for me.