ICYMI from the Chat: Apr 1st-7th, 2024
Ira Sohn, Crude Oil, Uranium, Prices Paid, NFP Jobs, Why Short Bonds Isn't Crowded, Charts of the Week, More!
“ICYMI From the Chat” is a mix of charts, comments, Q&A with subscribers, and exchanges that I found of value this week. For many who can’t or prefer not be in the chat, hopefully this catches you up on some developments around major trends and themes. There is also a section toward the end with charts I came across during the week that I may have not flagged in the chat, but probably should have!
A few appearances:
First, my friend
had the great idea of recording our occasional ~10-15min phone calls about the markets and putting it up on our respective Substack podcasts section. The first call was Tuesday and can be found here — Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear. I think we complement each other well with different industry experiences and backgrounds, and each comes up with varying ideas through our different styles and timeframes. I always enjoy catching up with him as he is an all-around super nice guy and very sharp! If you’re not yet subscribed to him, you should definitely check him out over at shrubstack.com and consider signing up.I finally took the plunge and did my first formal podcast appearance with
over at The Market Huddle (link here). Kevin has been a good buddy and is one of the nicest guys I have met in the markets, as well as one of the smartest and most hardworking. When it comes to delving into an investment thesis or market mechanics, nobody goes deeper into fully understanding a topic inside and out — you can find his work here. Kevin was a great interviewer, and I had fun reliving some memories and laying out how I think about a lot of the things I discuss here. Thank you again Kevin!
This week’s post:
I wrote a full post on why any bounce in the long bond due to the perceived softness in Prices Paid should be faded, and that the trap door under the long end of the bond market is still there: ISM Prices Paid = Bond Fade
ICYMI highlights:
My buddy Contrarian8888 shared some thoughts from the Ira Sohn Conference
Crude oil
Tuesday’s JOLTS/factory orders
Wednesday’s ADP and ISM Services
Friday’s NFP and my reactions
Bloomberg’s Simon White on why shorting bonds is not a crowded position
Uranium
Cool charts I stumbled across this week