PauloMacro’s Substack

PauloMacro’s Substack

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PauloMacro’s Substack
PauloMacro’s Substack
When Adults Leave the Room

When Adults Leave the Room

Updated Outlook for Equities, Treasuries, Positioning, the Economy, and More

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PauloMacro
Jul 13, 2025
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PauloMacro’s Substack
PauloMacro’s Substack
When Adults Leave the Room
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On June 24th I released my thoughts on equities and the interplay of liquidity and seasonality, concluding that Risk On would persist for several weeks. Today I will revisit the outlook along with a chart collection of things that caught my attention recently.

  • TACO is Firmly Consensus, but is it Misplaced?

  • QRA and the Upcoming Treasury Mix

  • Election Seasonality Revisited

  • A Very Unusual Rollover Syndrome

  • Positioning

  • State of the Economy

  • Sundry Charts

“Beyond this, the problem is universal. It is that governments are now held responsible for the welfare of the people. The aspirations of the people can outrun their ability to pay for them, and nobody has yet found a way to create answers to the aspirations out of thin air.”

― Adam Smith, The Money Game

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