Thoughts on oil again (overkill alert) as we probe the depths

Oil longs have been such a disaster since last Monday Aug 26th (Brent fell -$9 from $81.50 to $72.50 in seven sessions) that honestly it's getting to a point beyond my usual “I wouldn't listen to me.” Today’s close was a 52-week closing low, and we came within 6c/bbl of an fresh intraday 52-week low (and yet Brent oil when adjusted for the roll yield is still +4% YTD thanks to the persistent backwardation this year — doesn’t matter).

We are now within $1 of fresh post-Ukraine multiyear lows on the Brent oil price. Assuming anyone even cares about oil and energy, I thought it interesting to revisit some price action and curves. These charts tell you how something has changed this year (“plus ca change”), but I leave it up to you, the beholder, to decide whether Citi's warning today of $60 or even $50 in the coming quarters (after a possible bounce) will prove the way forward, or somehow Rest-of-World growth in the coming quarters will catch the bear case offsides.