Short Bonds vs Long JPY
Pressing one or the other
When J.P. Morgan was asked what the market would do, he said, “It will fluctuate.”
— Adam Smith, The Money Game
This was the daily chat thread but turned into a longer note with charts, sorry for the tardiness…
10 April 2025… good morning!
Near-term Direction for Equities
Long Bonds and USD-JPY
Well, yesterday was exciting. Bonds barely made it back to positive despite classic signs of a stopout in Asia overnight. I commented on chat late yesterday that the equity move reminded me of early January 2001 when the Fed cut rates and the Nasdaq ripped +14% in its largest single up day in history (yesterday was #2). As we know, the bear market then still had almost two years and -50% to run.
The biggest up days are in bear markets.