Retail Positioning + Seasonality Looking Dangerous, Oil Positioning Making History

Also ICYMI from the Chat this Week — Bonds, Weak Data, Gold, & Euro / DAX

Summary:

• Retail bought the August dip and could get rolled

• Seasonality & Positioning

• Oil Positioning Making Some History

• ICYMI from the Chat this Week — Bonds, Weak Data, Gold, & Euro / DAX

Also two notes out this week:

1. Oil and the positioning depths we have tumbled into …some of which I updated below along with a positioning chart I have not shared before.

2. Bullish note on Brazil that I think everyone should read regardless of their interest on Brazil, as this country could be harkening a turn in macro for 2024-25 (which I discuss at the end)… sometimes global macro “tells” come from the world’s corners.