Quick Initial Reaction to Israeli Attacks

Escalate to Deescalate May Be Past, Not Future

It turns out as usual the market has been highly complacent around Geopolitical risk which has been repeatedly faded at every turn since the Russian invasion. We discussed this at length in my recording on Tuesday, which if you have not had a chance to listen to it, you can find here - https://paulomacro.substack.com/p/conversation-on-oil-equities-bonds

So what now? I am not a geopolitical expert, and the fog of war around narratives (truth is war’s first victim) is such that one should not be predicting… As Soros liked to say, “I’m not predicting, I’m observing.” So let’s observe. Initial thoughts: