Oil is about to rip higher into a US Soft Patch

Two weeks ago when Brent oil was trading ~$82/bbl, I wrote Oil Has My Attention Here — An Update. For traders with short time frames and tight stops, this was clearly two weeks and $5 too early and therefore completely wrong. To me this is noise when I am fishing for inflections in narratives amidst chaotic flushes, market chop, and VAR shocks such as what we saw early this week across assets. It’s also why I keep telling you I would not listen to me, and none of this is financial advice.

With that prelude out of the way, I want to update a few points on oil and add some perspective. Starting with supply/demand and the physical before addressing positioning which is now a doozy: