Oil Has Turned a Very Big Corner

Consensus & Positioning, the Physical, the Fundamentals, and Trade Expression

I have begun accumulating a significant position in oil. I believe a bullish trend has begun that will run for many quarters or years. Today I want to elaborate on why I think oil has turned a very big corner for an upside run, and how I am thinking about best ways to express this view in the context of risk management and limiting downside.

• Consensus into the New Year

• Positioning Has Reflected a Bearish Extreme

• Physical Market Does Not Confirm the Bear

• Fundamentals — Supply & Demand

• What About Spare Capacity?

• The Optimal Expression