My Outlook for Equities in 2H and Beyond

It’s been a little while since my last comprehensive outlook. While I have tried to keep my thoughts up to date via the chat emails over the past few weeks, it’s time to bring together all these loose thoughts into one cohesive framework, particularly as it relates to timing.

Note: Please be aware that the rough draft of this was mostly written Monday before the excitement of Iran’s missiles to Qatar and the Monday evening ceasefire announced by Trump. Since nothing below is related to geopolitics anyway, my hope is it is still relevant by the time you read it, or at the very least gives you a nice break from the geopolitics we have all overdosed on over the last two weeks.

My attention regarding US assets remain drawn to 1) liquidity, 2) seasonality, and 3) technical flows & positioning. These all appear to be coming into focus together from a timing perspective. Today’s note will address these in turn, as follows:

• The TGA — It Was Liquidity All Along

• Election Seasonality

• Technical Factors Around Options & Flow

• More on Positioning and Sentiment

• Other Charts & Sundry

Let’s jump in.