ICYMI from the Chat: Mar 25-Apr 1, 2024
Charts of the Week, How long the bounce lasts, Bond Shorts Catch Fire, US Peak Oil, Momentum, Sticky Wages, PCE, Broadening Out, Max Stupid Nominations, More!
“ICYMI From the Chat” is a mix of charts, comments, Q&A with subscribers, and exchanges that I found material to my thinking over the past week. For many who can’t or prefer not be in the chat, hopefully this catches you up on some developments around major trends and themes I discuss in the blog posts.
I’ve added a section toward the end with charts I came across during the week that I didn’t put in the chat…but probably should have!
Also ICYMI — two notes out this week, one on positioning in equities (higher) and bonds (selloff), and one addressing the growing fears of a liquidity drain from capital gains tax payments/TGA and the RRP as it approaches a floor.
How Long to Bounce — My Longer-term Views Refined
Friday March 29th
“Surfacing this exchange as this will feature prominently in my writing in the weeks and months to come…
wrote:Honest question - how long are you seeing this upswing in economic activity lasting? Is this a shorter term phenomenon (6 months?) that will run its course and reverse into the long awaited recession? Or if they actually come through on rate cuts, do you think this could run for considerably longer, until inflation has risen back to such a level that the Fed eventually reverses course and raises rates again?
My response:
Brian, this is *the* question I have been contemplating and working on over the past couple of weeks. I will say this so far (and it is very much subject to change depending on the Fed and especially on Congress):