(Guest Post) Natural Gas Storage Is Headed For The 2022 Lows

Feb 11, 2025

∙ Paid

Note from PauloMacro: The team at HFI Research just wrote an excellent piece entitled Natural Gas Storage Is Headed for the 2022 Lows which I thought dovetailed very well with my Feb 2nd nat gas weather primer entitled Friends Don't Let Friends Gamble on the Weather. With their permission, HFI has graciously allowed me to repost their note in its entirety. As you work through their conclusion, it’s worth looking back on what natural gas pricing did throughout 2022 to incent power burn curtailments and build stocks ahead of the next winter. I’m certainly here for it! But remember — friends don’t let friends…

If you have not checked them out yet, HFI does some of the finest energy work around particularly when it comes to compiling and analyzing underlying data. If you are looking for supply/demand/storage and real-time data as it relates to structural longer-term outlooks and energy trends, they are a first stop for me and I would pay their site a visit at hfir.com. Please note there is no commercial relationship here with me— I just recognize good work when I see it, particularly when it enhances my own confirmation bias good and hard! With that, here is HFI…

Natural Gas Storage Is Headed For The 2022 Lows

By: HFI Research

Mother Nature isn't playing around this time around. Unlike the previous years where torch (bearish) patterns have best described heating demand, this year's persistent colder-than-normal weather has aided the natural gas bulls.

In the most recent ECMWF-EPS update, weather models remain bullish with heating demand materially higher than the seasonal norm. The implied deficit today is around ~40 Bcf/d with the figure going higher next week.

Note: We’ve been posting all of the ECMWF-EPS data for free on the chat.

ECMWF-EPS TDD Table