Feedback and Loose Thoughts From a Week of Travels

The Era of Rolling Blowouts, China, Oil, Gold

I’m finally home after a macro offsite plus a few days of meetings in London. The past two weeks have been a firehose of macro ideas…I think I will have to layer this out in installments, or “stream of consciousness” so forgive me in advance if the next few notes seem a bit disjointed. For now I will touch on:

• Things Touch Off — The Era of Rolling Blowouts

• China

• Oil

• Gold

As many of you know, I joined 20-25 buyside friends — HF managers, family offices, and “insti-viduals” who run their own money — in Madeira for a wine-fueled exchange of macro idea presentations. Besides being the best work trip I have ever taken in my nearly 25 years of sellside and buyside (excellent balance of shoptalk, sights, and vino/food), I don’t think I could ever say until now that I was hands down the dumbest guy in the room, and privileged to be there. You know it’s quite special when everyone is sad to leave at the end! Excellent meetings in London last week as well — made a few new friends, and my apologies to some of you whom I was unable to meet due to lack of time. Next time I will have to make it a full week, assuming Mrs. Cloudbear and the four cubs permit it!

Chatham Rules: I cannot name others nor attribute specific ideas or comments, but I am synthesizing and incorporating some of what was shared into my own views in a blended mix below. When I name any individuals below, it’s because their views are public knowledge already. Jumping in…