Everything is a Nothingburger Unless It’s AI

Thoughts on AI, Copper, Uranium, Brazil, Positioning, and a Rollover Syndrome Trade

It never works out well when I trade on month end. Don’t ask me why. Maybe it’s hedge fund PMs closing positions while pension funds rebalance bonds and stocks. Maybe it’s quants frontrunning 401k start-of-month flows while derivatives market makers dynamically hedge JPMorgan whale products and expiring structured notes. I just know the tape is always a mess and a waste of time to parse, and I have lost enough money and earned enough scars to know it’s best to not even bother. As Adam Smith said about cocoa in The Money Game, or Stanley Kroll said about platinum, whenever they felt the urge to trade, they would go lie down until the feeling passed. I would add month-end to the list.

Seeing as many of my positions stalled/reversed a week ago and today was month end, it seemed like a good day to reflect in a bit of “stream of consciousness.” I have organized this into the following subjects:

• AI

• Copper

• Uranium

• Brazil

• We Are So Back — Now What?

• A Rollover Syndrome Trade

Let’s get into it.