Crypto Starting to Act November 2025ey again -- Daily Thread 28 May 2025
The blurb I use to open the day’s chat thread was getting long so I wanted to send it here…
Funny how yesterday’s rip in everything except the USD made me feel like month-end came a few days early, and you know what I say about trading month-ends… I go lie down until the feeling passes. I took one small Rollover Alert trade which I will post separately later.
Today is light on data besides some regional surveys from Richmond and Dallas (not that surveys matter when the narrative has become Run It Hot). We have the $70bn 5yr auction at 1pm, and the Fed minutes at 2pm which will just reaffirm the Fed has no idea what comes next so they will do nothing for a while (saved you the trouble of reading them).
Japan’s 40yr auction last night was weak with bid-to-cover at 2.21x vs the 2.92 last time they ran one in March. It’s almost like the overall investor appetite is softening for locking in extremely long-dated nominal rates in inflationary regimes, as a global trend.
Lastly, I am shocked/not surprised by the rapid reemergence of the crypto nonsense and bad behavior, this time focused in the “me too MSTR” Bitcoin Treasury scams underway, from grifty Trump-related spacs to microcaps popping the equivalent of “giant follow-ons to buy crypto” that reminds me of fraudy Chinese reverse IPOs from 15 years ago... you have a stock listing you're not using? Great! Let's pop a giant follow-on to buy BTC and GO TO THE MOON.