And So 2025 Begins — the Year of the Rollercoaster

Unemployment Tomorrow, Growth Scare --> Recession Risks, Credit, Bitcoin, Uranium, & Sundry Comedy

A belated happy new year to everyone! Let me start with a sincere apology for the lack of publication over the past few weeks…strepfluenza + holidays. It is hard to believe a year has gone by in this experiment with Substack, and I remain very grateful for your feedback, pushback, comments, and support. They are truly valuable to my thinking, and hopefully you feel the same way. As a friendly disclaimer for more recent subscribers, sometimes my notes will come several in a single week, and sometimes a week or two (or three) might go by without anything besides comments on chat. The writing comes when I feel there is something really relevant to share (solving for high signal-to-noise ratio), and I am hopeful that you are grateful for the level of focus when it pops into your inbox!

There is much to jump back into here:

• Comment on tomorrow’s NFP (for non-traders and longer-term oriented readers, please feel free to skip this section)

• When Growth Scare Becomes Recession

• Credit

• Macro & Bitcoin

• Uranium — Recent developments plus a question for readers

• Sundry Comedy